000
WTNT43 KNHC 120246
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
 
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
MASS.  SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
ESTIMATED CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT PAULA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF
PAULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PAULA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF
THE GUIDANCE.  BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  
 
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10.  PAULA
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A POSITION NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE PAULA TO SLOW DOWN AS THE STEERING
CURRENTS COLLAPSE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK 
REMAINS QUITE LOW.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 16.8N  84.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N  85.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.4N  86.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 20.4N  86.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 21.0N  86.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  85.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N  83.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI