000
WTNT43 KNHC 180232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
 
KARL MOVED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND QUICKLY
WEAKENED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY
DISRUPTED WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. THERE
ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG WINDS BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30
KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
KARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LESS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 18.6N  97.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N  98.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA