000
WTNT43 KNHC 171447
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
 
KARL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE 10 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED.  IN ADDITION...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE 12Z...WITH THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 967 MB.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTED AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 103 KT FROM THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WITH
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT.  THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT.
 
KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 260/7.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48-72 HR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES
TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 19.4N  95.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.2N  96.9W    80 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 19.1N  98.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 19.1N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 19.1N 101.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN