000
WTNT43 KNHC 170837
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
 
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.  KARL STILL HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8
KNOTS.  KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.
AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  95.3W   105 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.3W   120 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN