000
WTNT43 KNHC 170240
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT
0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90
KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF
85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 85 KNOTS.  THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS
LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL
OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS.
 
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG
MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 19.7N  94.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N  95.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.7N  96.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA