000
WTNT43 KNHC 150840
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.
 
KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
RESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH