000
WTNT43 KNHC 030832
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
 
FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT OF T3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. FIONA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF FIONA EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NHC MODEL SUITE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 28.1N  66.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 29.8N  66.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  65.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 34.2N  63.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 36.4N  62.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 41.5N  58.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART