000
WTNT43 KNHC 030236
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
 
FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT...BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM
TAFB AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY.  THE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.  TYPICALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED SHEAR. HOWEVER...FIONA HAS BEEN WITHSTANDING THE
SHEAR DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
FIONA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/14 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
HURRICANE EARL TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN AROUND 36 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 26.9N  66.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 28.7N  66.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 30.8N  65.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 32.7N  64.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 34.8N  63.6W    35 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 39.5N  60.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN