000
WTNT43 KNHC 231450
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
 
BONNIE IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO STRONG
SHEAR...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WHICH IS ALREADY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS TRAILING THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  BONNIE WILL BE MOVING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME EVEN
MORE DISRUPTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL
AND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN
DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY. BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWING
THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BONNIE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...AND BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...OR SHOULD I SAY...THE MODELS THAT DO NOT WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE...SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 25.4N  80.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.2N  83.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  86.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  88.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS