000
WTNT43 KNHC 222032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE
DEPRESSION AND FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 1006 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANZIED THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH THE CENTER NOW
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 30 KNOTS BUT ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...AS
EXPECTED...WILL RESULT IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
BUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. 
 
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
AN UPPER-LOW OVER FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 22.7N  75.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 23.8N  77.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N  80.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  83.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.5N  86.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 29.0N  91.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 32.5N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS