000
WTNT43 KNHC 160247
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT BILL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS A BLEND
OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA.  WITH THE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...BILL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND BECOME EVEN STRONGER THEREAFTER.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.

BILL IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL TRADE WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF
WAS THE LEADER SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES A FEW RUNS AGO.  NOW...THE REST OF
THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...ARE FOLLOWING THE
ECMWF TUNE...AND ALL TURN BILL MORE THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 11.3N  36.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 11.2N  38.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 12.0N  41.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 12.8N  44.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N  47.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  52.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  58.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N  64.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA