000
WTNT43 KNHC 280853
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007
 
LORENZO MADE LANDFALL BEFORE THE LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
ARRIVED....BUT RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALVARADO MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THE
CENTER MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN.  THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE EYEWALL
WAS DEGRADING AS THE CENTER WAS CROSSING THE COAST...SO THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. 
GOES IMAGERY AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS MUCH WARMER
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER THAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT A RATHER
POTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR THE
CENTER OF LORENZO TO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ.  THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...POSSIBLY UP TO 15
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
SINCE LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6.  A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST...SLOWLY TAKING LORENZO FARTHER INLAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE PACE OF DECLINE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DECAY SHIPS DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 20.6N  97.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.9N  98.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB