000
WTNT43 KNHC 280241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007
 
WHEN THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT LORENZO AROUND 1930Z...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 MB/HR.
AT THAT TIME...LORENZO WAS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE
THEN...LORENZO HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE CENTER. THE PRESENTATION
OF THE CENTER HAS ALSO IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY ON THE ALVARADO
RADAR...WHICH NOW SHOWS A CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS
SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER
LANDFALL.     
 
ALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 20.5N  96.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.6N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN