000
WTNT43 KNHC 272037
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LORENZO
INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND THE PRESSURE HAS
COME DOWN TO AT LEAST 999 MB. THE CREW REPORTED A VERY TIGHT CENTER
THAT WAS VERY HARD TO FIX...WITH A LOT OF CONVECTION. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS.  THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE THE
CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. 
 
THE CENTER OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE
MORE THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BECAUSE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...LORENZO COULD EASILY CROSS THE COAST
AS A HURRICANE. WE ALL KNOW THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN
DESPITE ALL THE RECENT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES...AND THE WINDS AT
LANDFALL COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN INDICATED.
 
LORENZO CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE
LORENZO ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING LORENZO TO THE COAST IN
ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
 
THE SLOW MOTION OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 20.4N  95.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 20.4N  96.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA