000
WTNT43 KNHC 150228
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND
FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING.  AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE
PLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT
SEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME.  GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS
PATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT. 

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO.  SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME.  IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN.  THE
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
STEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 15.9N  51.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.4N  52.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N  53.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N  55.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  56.4W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.8N  58.2W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  59.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  60.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE