002 
WTNT42 KNHC 280832
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Kirk is a highly sheared cyclone with most of the associated
weather well east of the center. Despite the lack of organization of
the cloud pattern, a reconnaissance plane a few hours ago, reported
winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt.  Another plane will
be investigating Kirk early this morning and will determine how much
the cyclone has weakened.  The upper-level winds are highly
unfavorable across the entire Caribbean basin, and the most likely
scenario is for Kirk to open up into a trough sooner rather than
later as indicated by most of the global models. The NHC forecast
keeps the cyclone for another 24 hours, but dissipation could occur
much earlier.

Satellite imagery, radar from Martinique, and plane fixes indicate
that Kirk jogged toward the west-southwest earlier. This could be an
indication that the center is becoming less defined, but the bottom
line is that the system as a whole is expected to move westward
about 10 kt since it is embedded within the trade winds. This is the
solution provided by most of the models, which all show a weakening
trough propagating westward across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind
that most of the weather associated with Kirk is displaced to the
east of the center. These winds and rains are still likely to
continue spreading westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm
Warning area for the next several hours.  Higher winds are
anticipated especially over elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 13.2N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 13.2N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 14.0N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila