196 
WTNT42 KNHC 261458
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

Kirk is maintaining a CDO of strong convection over its center, but
banding features are limited.  Observations from an Air Force
Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with scatterometer
data indicate that the storm has strengthened a little and the
maximum winds are now near 45 kt.  The SHIPS model output shows a
large increase in westerly shear over Kirk within 18-24 hours.
Therefore not much additional strengthening is likely, and a
weakening trend should commence in a day or so.  The official
intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus.
Strong westerly shear is likely to continue to adversely affect Kirk
while it moves over the Caribbean, and the system should weaken into
a depression within 72 hours or sooner, and become a remnant low
later in the forecast period.

The motion is a little north of due west, or 280/16 kt.  The
steering pattern for Kirk is rather straightforward.  A
subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern North Atlantic
is expected to persist and retrograde slightly westward over the
forecast period.  The flow on the southern side of the high should
steer Kirk on a westward to west-northwestward track for the next
several days.  The official track forecast is close to the
corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, and is very similar to
the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 12.1N  54.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 12.7N  56.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 13.7N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 14.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 15.2N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 16.0N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 16.0N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 16.0N  76.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch