000
WTNT42 KNHC 080233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Beryl is currently comprised of a small swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with isolated patches of deep convection near and east of the
center.  Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little
since the previous advisory, and based on them the initial
intensity is set to a possibly generous 40 kt.

The initial motion is 290/16.  A strong low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge north of Beryl should steer the system quickly
west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h, and the track guidance
is in excellent agreement on this.  So, the new track forecast is an
update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the
track guidance envelope.

Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over Beryl
during the next 48 h, and the cyclone will also be moving into a
drier and more stable air mass.  Based on this, the official
intensity forecast calls for continued weakening, with Beryl
forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the
Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave just
after 36 h.  It should be noted that the official forecast is based
on the premise that enough convection will return to the system to
partly sustain it, and if this does not happen Beryl could weaken
to a wave sooner than currently forecast.  However, it should also
be noted that even as an open wave the system will likely produce
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands
and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl continues to weaken, but there is still a chance of some
islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind
and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in
effect.  Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through early next week.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 13.1N  54.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 14.0N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.3N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.6N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven