000
WTNT42 KNHC 070859
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Although there has been no recent microwave imagery to help examine
the inner-core structure of Beryl, the small tropical cyclone
appears to have lost some organization since yesterday afternoon.
Shortwave GOES-16 infrared imagery suggests that the center is near
the northwestern portion of the small convective mass.  Dvorak data
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have dropped to T3.5 while CI
numbers support keeping Beryl a 65-kt hurricane, but this could
be generous.

The hurricane seems to have finally gained some latitude and
the initial motion estimate is west-northwest or 285/12 kt.  Beryl
is located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge that is
anchored over the west-central Atlantic.  This should keep the
cyclone on a general west-northwestward heading with some increase
in forward speed over the next few days.  The track models did
not change much this cycle and only slight adjustments were made
to the previous NHC forecast.  The official forecast is once
again along the southern side of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the UKMET and FSSE models.

Beryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear
environment today, but an increase in westerly shear is expected on
Sunday, and the shear is forecast to become quite strong as Beryl
moves over the eastern Caribbean early next week.  As a result, the
new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength
during the next 24-36 h, but predicts steady weakening after that
time.  The updated intensity forecast is lower than the previous
advisory due to the lower initial intensity and less bullish
intensity guidance.  The new NHC forecast also shows Beryl
degenerating into an open trough in 3 to 4 days, which is in good
agreement within the global models that all predict this to occur
while the system moves across the eastern Caribbean.  Regardless of
whether the system has a closed circulation, it is likely to
continue producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
over portions of the Greater Antilles next week.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the
chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and
rainfall continue to increase.  Hurricane and tropical storm
watches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser
Antilles, and additional watches could be required for other
islands today.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 11.1N  49.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 11.7N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 12.6N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 13.7N  57.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 14.8N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 17.2N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown