000
WTNT42 KNHC 072031
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012
 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT LESLIE HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AT 55 KNOTS. 

THE CENTER IS PASSING JUST EAST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 WHICH REPORTED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW A LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...
SUGGESTING THAT LESLIE STILL LACKS AN INNER CORE.  SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS SST MICROWAVE DATA...ARE INDICATING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS TO THE NORTH OF
LESLIE. SINCE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED...ONCE LESLIE MOVES OVER
THESE WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT WILL REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR THAT HAVE REACHED HURRICANE
INTENSITY HAVE DONE SO AS THEY APPROACH 30 DEGREES NORTH AND NOT IN
THE DEEP TROPICS.            

STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 27.4N  62.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 28.0N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 28.8N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 30.2N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 31.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 35.0N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 41.0N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 47.0N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA