000
WTNT42 KNHC 301431
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BERYL IS
LOSING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND WELL
REMOVED AND EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AS NORMALLY OCCURS DURING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED.  INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OVER WATER
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT BERYL WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE A LITTLE
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER
WATER.
 
BERYL HAS ACCELERATED AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ABOUT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED. SINCE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED...THERE IS
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 34.2N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 35.5N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  31/1200Z 37.0N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  01/0000Z 38.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1200Z 39.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1200Z 38.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA