000
WTNT42 KNHC 271449
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS.  BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
 
THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09.  BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF.  AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 30.1N  79.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 30.2N  80.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL
 24H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0000Z 30.8N  82.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1200Z 31.4N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1200Z 33.5N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  31/1200Z 37.0N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 41.0N  58.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI