000
WTNT42 KNHC 091432
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING
IMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
INLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
VECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.  CAMAGUEY...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER...IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  OUR BEST GUESS AT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS WIND
FORECAST...INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.

PALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND
THIS HAS NECESSITATED A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2. 
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM...IT
IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL
LOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS...BY WHICH TIME THERE
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM.  SINCE WE BELIEVE
THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO
AND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

IF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS...PALOMA COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 21.2N  77.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.7N  77.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  77.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  76.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH