000
WTNT42 KNHC 010832
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008
 
LAURA IS NOT QUITE FRONTAL ENOUGH TO BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL...
AND WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IT
HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTION-LESS LONG ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A REMNANT
LOW.  SO...THIS IS NOT THE LAST ADVISORY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM TAFB AND TROPICAL 35 KT
FROM SAB...AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 00Z SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS. 
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  LAURA IS ENTRAINING COLD AIR ON THE WEST AND
SOUTH SIDES...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
THE NEXT 6-12 HR.  THEREFORE...BARRING AN UNLIKELY CONVECTIVE FLARE
UP...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14.  LAURA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE MAIN PORTION OF THE
WESTERLIES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 44.8N  47.6W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 47.0N  46.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 50.2N  45.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 53.6N  42.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 55.6N  36.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 56.5N  22.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 56.5N   7.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN