000
WTNT42 KNHC 010233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008
 
I WAS TEMPTED TO TERMINATE ADVISORIES ON LAURA TONIGHT SINCE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...LAURA CANNOT BE CALLED A
REMNANT LOW YET AND IT IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL ENOUGH TO BE CALLED
ONE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45
KNOTS. LAURA IS MOVING OVER COLD WATERS AND IS BECOMING INVOLVED
WITH COLD AIR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LAURA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL
IN 12 HOUR OR LESS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE LARGE HOLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER IS 015 AT 14 KNOTS. LAURA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AHEAD OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT
SHOULD THEN TURN EASTWARD ADVECTED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 43.6N  48.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 45.5N  47.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 52.5N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 56.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 56.5N  13.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA