000
WTNT42 KNHC 190243
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  64
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF BERTHA'S EYE HAS WEAKENED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
UNCHANGED...SO BERTHA REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE.  BERTHA IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WITHIN THEN NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BERTHA 
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HOURS. 

BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED
OF ABOUT 22 KT.  BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHEAST
HEADING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER.  HOWEVER...THE
NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT IS AHEAD
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORECAST 34 KT WIND RADII WERE
EXPANDED OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 39.5N  48.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 42.0N  46.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 45.4N  42.1W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 50.2N  37.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 55.4N  32.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 63.5N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED 
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN