000
WTNT42 KNHC 121433
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008
 
AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS
OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION...BERTHA IS PROBABLY CAUSING UPWELLING
AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND.
 
BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS TO THE
NORTH ABOUT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL FAVORS A
GENERAL SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...AS BERTHA GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLOW PACE. DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO TURN BERTHA
TOWARD THE EAST BEYOND DAY FOUR.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 29.9N  62.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 30.2N  62.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.7N  62.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 31.3N  62.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  62.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.0N  62.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 35.5N  60.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA