000
WTNT42 KNHC 121431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007
1000 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007
 
OLGA LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BASED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROBABLY ALSO LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...WE WILL HANG ON TO OLGA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS JUST IN CASE DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS OR WEST WINDS BECOME
EVIDENT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 10Z...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THERE REMAINS A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.  

THE VORTICITY CENTER HAS ACCELERATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/20.  OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION THERE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA.  SOME OF
THESE RAINS SHOULD SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 19.1N  75.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.2N  77.6W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N  80.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  82.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI