000
WTNT42 KNHC 120233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007
 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION BECAME MORE
TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE
CENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATED
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS
MEASURED BY THE PLANE REACHED 55 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND 54
KNOTS BY SFMR. THE PROXIMITY OF THE WINDS TO THE CENTER AND THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED THAT OLGA MADE THE TRANSITION
TO A TROPICAL STORM. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT MEASURE DATA
FROM OLGA'S CENTER BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAD ALREADY MOVED INLAND
PRIOR TO A POSSIBLE PENETRATION.

INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS BUT MOST LIKELY...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON IF IT HAS NOT STARTED ALREADY DUE
TO OLGA'S INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN
LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANES RARELY SURVIVE IT.
 
OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS
INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AND OLGA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT
WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR OLGA TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF
LAND AND EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR
ALONG ITS PATH. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF KEEP OLGA AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FIVE DAYS. 
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
WHICH IS ALREADY WET FROM NOEL.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 19.0N  70.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N  76.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N  78.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N  80.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N  83.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA