000
WTNT42 KNHC 102032
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE
EAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/15 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST WAS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT GABRIELLE WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
ABLE TO GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY
OBSERVED...IT MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THAT LONG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 37.6N  71.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 38.1N  68.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 39.4N  64.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 41.4N  59.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN