000
WTNT42 KNHC 091500
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007
 
GABRIELLE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.  RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST
REFLECTIVITIES ARE NO LONGER WRAPPING AROUND THE SMALL
CIRCULATION... WHICH HAS SEPARATED A LITTLE FROM THE CONVECTION...
PROBABLY DUE TO NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.  IN ADDITION...VELOCITY DATA
FROM THE RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT THAT JUST FLEW THROUGH THE
CENTER HAS NOT SAMPLED THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...IT HAS NOT FOUND ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE HAS
STRENGTHENED.  SINCE GABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9...AND RADAR IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE TURN
TO THE RIGHT IS BEGINNING.  GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GABRIELLE IS
FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72
HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 34.7N  76.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 35.9N  75.8W    50 KT...NEAR NC COAST
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 37.3N  73.9W    50 KT...OVER ATLANTIC
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 38.5N  71.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 39.8N  67.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB