000
WTNT42 KNHC 090900
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007
 
PEAK 925 MB WINDS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
GABRIELLE WERE 53 KT IN THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED BY 30 NMI OR MORE FROM THE VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  HOWEVER...ON THE FIX MADE JUST A MOMENT AGO...THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA SUGGESTED THAT A NEW CENTER MIGHT BE FORMING
WITHIN THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE SOME STRENGTHENING...MAKING GABRIELLE A MID-RANGE TROPICAL
STORM AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/9. ALTHOUGH A MODEST WESTWARD JUMP IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING IF THE CENTER REFORMS...GABRIELLE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...AND THEN
BE CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING WESTERLIES AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL OVER THE OUTER
BANKS...BUT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH
AFTER RECURVATURE TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 34.0N  76.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 35.3N  76.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 36.6N  74.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 39.2N  69.6W    35 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME