000
WTNT42 KNHC 020852
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D
INDCIATE THAT BARRY HAS MINIMAL CENTRAL CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...
WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DUE TO THE SHEAR...THERE
ARE NO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL CORE IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
BARRY IN A FEW HOURS TO SEE IF IT HAS WEAKENED.

BARRY IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 030/13.  THE STORM SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 
THIS FLOW SHOULD DRIVE BARRY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL THE U. S. TROUGH ABSORBS THE SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.  ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
IN THE DIRECTION.  THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK KEEPING
THE CENTER OVER WATER...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH A TRACK NEAR OR JUST INLAND
FROM THE U. S. COAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THESE
POSSIBILTITES...BEING SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BARRY IS INTERACTING WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE STORM CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY DIFLUENT...AND
THUS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP NEAR THE CENTER
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES. ONE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO INCREASE THE
INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW BARRY TO CONTINUE
AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH GALES EAST OF THE CENTER
UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 25.9N  84.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 28.2N  82.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 31.3N  80.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 34.0N  78.6W    40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 36.7N  75.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 44.0N  70.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN