000
WTNT42 KNHC 020241
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007
 
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...STRONG
SHEAR HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES THAT
BARRY IS NOT CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF
AN EXPOSED CENTER SURROUNDED BY A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE FACT
THAT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS. BARRY SHOULD BEGIN
TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
BARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CAUSED BY THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE CENTER OF BARRY IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER SINCE THE STORM IS NOT SYMMETRIC.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
COULD REMAIN BEHIND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR
BUT NONE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS PROVIDED THIS SOLUTION SO FAR.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 24.7N  84.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 27.3N  84.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 33.0N  80.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 36.1N  76.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 42.0N  70.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0000Z ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA