000
WTNT41 KNHC 060837
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

Thunderstorm activity has continued to pulse near the center of
Fred overnight, however, strong northwesterly shear is causing
the cloud tops to be quickly shunted southeastward.  The initial
intensity is maintained at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a
Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB.  Little overall change in strength
is expected today.  In 24 to 36 hours the shear is expected to
diminish, which could allow a brief opportunity for Fred to
restrengthen.  After that time, the cyclone is expected to enter an
area of stronger westerly upper-level winds and cooler SSTs, which
should halt further intensification. Late in the period, strong
shear and marginal SSTs should cause weakening.  An alternate
scenario shown by the ECMWF is for the shear to cause Fred to
weaken and become a trough of low pressure within the next 12
to 24 hours.

Fred has finally made its much anticipated northward turn.  A turn
toward the northeast should occur later today as the cyclone is
steered around the western periphery of a low-level ridge to its
northeast.  A turn toward the east and then southeast are forecast
late in the period as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of
the cyclone.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory
and is in best agreement with the 0000 UTC GFS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 24.9N  43.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 27.5N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 29.2N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 30.5N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 32.2N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 32.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 31.5N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown