000
WTNT41 KNHC 051444
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear.
However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The
initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and
continuity.  I will not speculate any more about the convection
redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in
intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the
next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as
indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance.

Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the
steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west-
northwest at about 7 kt.   A turn to the northwest and north should
begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it
becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC
forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the
GFS and the ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 23.4N  41.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 23.9N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 25.5N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 27.5N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 29.5N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 31.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 33.0N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 33.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila