000
WTNT41 KNHC 040233
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Deep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong
westerly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35
kt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B
pass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters,
the strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred
is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the
remnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in
about 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable
environment, but this is uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a
little to the left of the previous forecast track. While the
overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair
amount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will
recurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude
westerlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted
a little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the
initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is
largely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model
consensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS,
GEFS mean, and HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 22.0N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Brennan