000
WTNT41 KNHC 130833
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
 
AN ASCAT PASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH PATTY WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...NIGHT-
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
ELONGATED AND LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PATTY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

PATTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WHICH IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 25.5N  71.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 25.4N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0600Z 24.0N  74.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA