000
WTNT41 KNHC 130233
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
 
DESPITE A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU-A
ESTIMATION.  PATTY...HOWEVER...IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN
AND DISSIPATES IN 2 DAYS.
 
PATTY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY AN ERRATIC
DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  PATTY SHOULD...HOWEVER...BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE
TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 25.4N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 25.3N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 24.7N  73.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1200Z 23.9N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS