000
WTNT41 KNHC 122035
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
PATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
A SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER. 
 
PATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
DISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 25.5N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 25.4N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 25.0N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z 24.2N  74.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN