000
WTNT41 KNHC 121439
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME
BANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. 
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A
BLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN
THE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA.  THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY...
AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WINDS.  PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
 
THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY
DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION.  LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE NHC TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN 36H.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 25.5N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 25.7N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 25.6N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 24.5N  73.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z 23.5N  75.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE