000
WTNT41 KNHC 020845
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012
 
KIRK HAS BEEN ACCELERATING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/28 KT. CONTINUED ACCELERATION TOWARD 
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS NOW THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION. SINCE KIRK REMAINS ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

A SMALL FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF
KIRK DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS HELPED KIRK TO CLING ON TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
SHORT-LIVED RESPITE...AND WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-20C SSTS IN 6-12 HOURS. DEGENERATION
INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 12
HOURS...AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 43.5N  39.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 47.4N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/0600Z 53.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART