000
WTNT41 KNHC 020255
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW ONLY CONSISTS OF A FEW PATCHES.
AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 50 KT...AND THAT COULD
BE GENEROUS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 20C AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT. THE SMALL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED SUNDAY NIGHT BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE INTENSITY
AND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT AS
IT IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH.
A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED UNTIL KIRK IS ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 41.2N  41.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 44.5N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/0000Z 50.0N  30.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI