000
WTNT41 KNHC 012037
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIRK CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST CONTINUES
TO ELONGATE NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AFFECT
THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER FROM TAFB.
AS KIRK MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
KIRK SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/25...AS KIRK CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A
LITTLE FASTER BY 24 HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 39.5N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 42.4N  41.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 47.6N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN