000
WTNT41 KNHC 010846
TCDAT1
 
HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012
 
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF KIRK WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. BOTH SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. KIRK WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY.  MOST LIKELY...THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 HOURS OR LESS BEFORE IT IS
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 20
KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 35.3N  48.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 37.7N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 41.5N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 46.0N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA