000
WTNT41 KNHC 311448
TCDAT1
 
HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012
 
A 1202 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED THAT THE SMALL EYE OF KIRK IS STILL
THERE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NO LONGER SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
KIRK COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATERS AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD BUT ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND KEEPS KIRK AS A
HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST IVCN
CONSENSUS AID AND THE LGEM. KIRK SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72
HOURS AND BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER.
 
KIRK IS NOW MOVING A TAD EAST OF NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 005/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE RECURVING AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A
BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 31.2N  50.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 33.1N  50.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 35.7N  47.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 38.9N  44.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 43.0N  39.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 53.0N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN