000
WTNT41 KNHC 310847
TCDAT1
 
HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012
 
KIRK IS A SMALL-SIZE HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A
RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS WERE 5.0 AT 0600 UTC ON THE DVORAK SCALE GIVING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED.
THIS MEANS THAT THE WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...I
WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE HIGHER T-NUMBERS
BEFORE ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD...IF NECESSARY.  ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...KIRK ONLY HAS A 24-HOUR WINDOW TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT REACHES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR EARLIER.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS...AND SOON IT SHOULD RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
KIRK SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STEERING
FLOW AROUND KIRK IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 30.1N  50.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 31.7N  50.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 34.5N  49.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 37.5N  46.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 41.0N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 50.5N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA