000
WTNT41 KNHC 301459
TCDAT1
 
HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012
 
KIRK HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55-60
KT WERE RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT...KIRK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK IS ON
TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST
AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH LIES ON TOP OF
THE NEARLY IDENTICAL TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS
OF MORE THAN 26C FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE
KIRK IS A SMALL SYSTEM...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERMITTENT
INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT CAN BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS
LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL
IV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 27.2N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 28.4N  50.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 30.4N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 32.9N  49.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 42.2N  40.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 49.2N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART