000
WTNT41 KNHC 290831
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 AM AST WED AUG 29 2012
 
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...KIRK IS
STILL PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND A CONSENSUS OF
THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN SOME
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE KIRK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 26C FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND BECAUSE OF THE
ANTICIPATED MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...STRENGTHENING
SEEMS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER VERY COOL
WATERS AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST WITH A PROGRESSIVELY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
AS KIRK MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT IT STILL
LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 24.3N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 24.7N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 25.3N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 26.4N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 28.1N  51.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 32.5N  51.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 46.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI