000
WTNT41 KNHC 052034
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
CONVECTION HAS FALLEN APART NEAR FLORENCE...WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS REMAINING.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND THE WIND
SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 45 KT.  DESPITE THE RECENT
DECAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RATHER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.  THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER THAN THE
GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE FORMER CLUSTER IS LOWER THAN
BEFORE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR OR BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 3...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...IT COULD HAPPEN A LOT
SOONER.  

FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT.  THIS
MOTION AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD...AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 16.3N  36.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 16.4N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 16.7N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 17.2N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 17.8N  47.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 19.5N  54.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1800Z 21.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z 24.5N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE